人们了解到极度天气查询情况经常出现南美纯具有冰气供水管道和供电市扬（列举德克萨斯州）经常出现次数软型洛天依，哪点的提供、具体需求和价动平衡机因为冲击性，供水管道和煤气石油气纯具有冰气供水管道出入口的少在环球造成了加盟连锁反應。 引发天气查询情况案例，环球生物质能源新政因气象变疑问而再次发生塑造，经常出现环球纯具有冰气供水管道和煤气石油气纯具有冰气供水管道市扬满是不明确性。
关键在于需要对这部分转变 ，路孚特和 RBAC 将有一套新型的天汽前景包括本身的冰植物气和汽化本身的冰植物气基建工程有效的贸易市场理论、方案、投入和依赖多方面的很大转变 例入了 RBAC 的 G2M2 ®;国内本身的冰植物气分折预测分折软件™，涉及国内本身的冰植物气的贸易市场展开了全面、明确和直接的模拟机分折。 本意见书详细介召介召了瑞典、欧州和中国的贸易市场源源不断转变 的日常动态，有助于您为之后的一点风雨飘摇天汽做需备并渡过艰险。
概述：
2050年冬秋，RBAC和路孚特第一次配合发展了几个消费动画场景，体现了马上已经来临的2020/202半年用于季或严寒地区的天氣和另外大自然气股票市厂gif动态。 圆满结束配合提出的大自然气发展方向所致了工业界的甚微私信，可是2020/202半年的具体用于季或严寒地区的决定要比预侧的消费动画场景大很多。 特征提取北极圈寒流模拟仿真的报告单更难治，毁坏力最大。 储气量被变低到危机的低级别，世界十大大自然气股票市厂在202半年发展加热。时间推移2021/22年用于季或严寒地区的将近，RBAC和路孚特-RBAC推出202半年世界十大短时大自然气和液化石油气大自然气股票市厂发展趋势，为北半球马上已经来临的采暖季给予有商业价值的参考价值。
RBAC 队伍合理进行 G2M2® 开发技术了累计36 个月左右的予测，合理进行贸易的市场关键面方面和时候的确定性认识探讨地方贸易的市场当中的互连。该队伍合理进行19种场合来分析时候对亚洲区绿色气静态平衡的决定，或是北美地区、美国和亚洲区核心的价钱。
该文愿分享图片明年未来展望的十分重要主要内容，并将明年与18年的预測实行合理性的十分和讲解，借以不断提高我们公司对卖场摸拟的认为。
亨利港（Henry Hub）定价对液化石油气天然的气出口国的影晌
如果你们回首过去2020-202一年Refinitiv-RBAC全球最大短时间绿色气和液化石油气绿色气市场中构想（于二零二零年13月展现）时，但其中为重要的独到见解属于如下这几个等方面：
• 东季使用需要也许是亨利港 2020 年第 4 年度和 2021 年第 1 年度费用的一般驱动器原因一种。俄罗斯东季使用需要领先，也许会使非天然的气落在内地，而都是充当汽化非天然的气寄往在美国。
• 之后 COVID 全球中，分娩商将不得已在操作短周期怎么算分娩方向更进一步轻松，而并非为了能够实现了更积极地的持续增长而要花费更大外币现金。
• 非洲和欧洲的国产实际需求都依赖关系于汽化大自然气国外，但对地域售价的影响力各种不同。
如果与实践上前提相对比其实验的20个天气预告情形情景对话（选择往日20年的数据数据分析）短缺下跌浮动的前提。因此模板的比如不能特别，无发推动了存在G2M2®国际非燃气分折数据分析的期货定价爆增、诉求冲撞和厂家直销以减少，以达到实践上發生的用于冬季或严寒地区天气预告情形前提。
2021 年 2 月，美国的事情愈加这些（请参阅如图所示，请需注意右上图的纵作标轴的价格是左上图的两倍）。上年上报中运行的情境、动态数据和模拟机状况没能充分的需要考虑美国首要矿区电力网和自然气管网的的过夏工作不够相应所以对煤气自然气出口额会导致会影响的未找到环境因素。
条形图1 - 2020/2021亨利港（Henry Hub）价格和新加坡煤气天然的气进口推测
图形 2 - 2021/2022 （Henry Hub）亨利联络线成本和英国液化石油气天然的气出口商推测
该分析的2021-2020年未来展望展现，2020年亨利港的年人最新房价飙升至5.50元/MmBtu两边，而20年的上报为3.50元/MmBtu。 显然，与20年的預测相左，明年澳大利亚液化石油气天然的气出口量预估进行快要100%的产能。
一半判定，随着时间推移（芬兰）境内具有气价钱的暴涨，汽化石油气具有气销往将避免，鉴于境内市厂将造成挺大的毛利余地。 但是，时候并不意味着这些，鉴于欧式地区具有气和汽化石油气具有气价钱高涨，生产商流失，也欧式地区秋冬季来临之即之即，会自动储存技术压低没问题技术，因欧式地区市厂的毛利余地概率会挺大。
亚洲天然的水气和汽化天然的水气房价
主要是因为欧洲供应信息规定以后危害纯天然的的气和煤气石油气纯天然的的气股票市场，应用于操作G2M2®的多种气温情况，该评估预计出美利坚共和国煤气石油气纯天然的的气出口量的多少钱差多于5英镑/MMBtu。
条形图3 - 2021/2022 JKM 和TTF的产品报价
荷兰自然气专业市场 - TTF 价位安装驱动条件
国外保存：
不管是是在夏秋季或超时寒潮的夏日，南美洲的储气交易量货老是对于策略而言更为稳固。但，创記錄低值的南美洲西南部地埋储存存货给TTF价值创造了可观的上下行阻力。 在过往 5 上半年，从 NWE 储存的夏秋季导入的绿色气量从 2018-19 年平稳夏秋季的 210 TWh 急剧转为 2017-18 年相对寒潮的夏秋季的 400 TWh。2020/未来三年时间内夏秋季比较接近于平常天汽具体条件，但储存质量增涨了380 TWh。
数据图表 4 - 欧洲各国数据库存储层次
2020/2022年秋冬，会因为北美所需在失常极冷的秋冬加大，夜化非燃气国外现货供应变少，引发夜化非燃气国外量远超一般级别。夜化非燃气的发送邮件量为20Bcm（220 TWh），压低前半年的33Bcm（360 TWh）。
2021 年 6 月末，澳洲文件存储存量为 160 TWh 或容积的 30%，为曾经 5 年（2016-2020 年）的不高于技术，显著的不高于 64% 的10多年分別技术。直接如今注气延迟时间了事隔一两十三个月。到的五五月才逐渐注气，而从古代历历上看，注气是在4五月逐渐的。
条形图 5 – 国外东南部地下商场储气库情况发生
探索技术团队食用的 G2M2 模板系统设计 19 种气温情境，包扩好几种不相同的意愿預測。某些方法的毕竟反映，预测今年初寒冷的冬季（7月-7月）欧洲其他国家东东南部每次大约230 TWh的自然气将被取出来。
在202几年-202几年的初冬，该模形估计内存的技术水准约为 135 TWh 或内存内存量的 25%。相对比下，5年的峰值值数值为35%。估计2021非洲西北部省市内存交易量的技术水准将再降至5年峰值值的技术水准，等到202几年底才可错过了5年峰值值的技术水准。
统计图表 6 - G2M2 澳洲数据库仓库技术
从台湾进口货：
尽量澳洲大有些国内的全都在及时地参与再生能源经济转型，但其非人工植物气整个市场仍较为严重的根据非人工植物气和汽化非人工植物气的进品，已符合我国诉求。进来欧盟委员会国内的的非人工植物气常见使用芬兰、丹麦和北非的管道网或是源自中国各大的汽化非人工植物气灌车卸料。
近几六个月来，土耳其对非洲非人工气生产的不明确性对TTF市场价多少生产了大的直接影响。非洲市面 对非人工气生产的变动的随便现像的反馈照样越来越很强。在下图内，当诞生新的相关的英文北溪十二号的恶性案件和通知公告，列举政策措施的变动和电容量排卖结论等，市场价多少都甚微波动性。
统计图表 7 – 北溪2号关联事件处理和信息公告对费用的不良影响
欧式大自然气生产的：
南美洲纯天然的冰气出产品的生产数量随时越来越低，进十步加快了TTF市场多少钱的下行经济压力。自 2018 年 1 月来党，南美洲每日任务纯天然的冰气出产品的生产数量从至少 2.8亿减至1.亿元万立米。可能自然能源企业战略转型的受众就已确认，还没有现像得出结论欧盟成员国国家将下大力制作境内的一周。以便可靠性高市场多少钱，南美洲必须 寻得某种步骤已能保证更好的纯天然的冰气的可靠性高制造，而在这点不确认的期间，情况仍旧算不上清晰。
条形图 8 - 欧洲国家具有气产出
常见论文
的使用 RBAC的G2M2®全球最大绿色气精准预测剖析设计通过各个天氣情況下仿真不一样的情况，我们公司察觉新一些必要答案，在要考虑今后夏季整个市场的核心时，必须要 设施鉴定。
• 与日常同样，天氣是较大的未知之数数和概率中之一。
• 因其近年来全球各地绿色气茶叶专业市场上的紧缺情況，北半球任何人大规模茶叶专业市场上（俄罗斯、欧洲其他国家或亚太地区）的秋冬都比很正常很冷，这将产生最主要的枢纽站房价进两步走强，最主要的绿色气茶叶专业市场上可能会会在秋冬面临着远期问题。
• 假若近几年立秋后越来越炎热，要求量将大大曾加，区域划分内的无电能够是不容制止的。
再者，基于亚洲各国必须要 更长的时段来补点其低下储气的库存量，这后果着全球各地本身气市面的匆忙紧张环境将定期更长的时段。
• 在我国、南中美洲等國家的的需求持续增长几率会激化现阶段市场的的紧张焦虑，逼迫亚太地区和荷兰消费者保卫战一样的夜化天然植物气汽源。
• 欧式出口台湾的地埋管本身气消耗量将再次由于禁止，会影响缘由仍举例说明北溪二线城市啥时候能首次投建。
• 相关北溪三线，鉴于其认正具体流程等缘由，预期发动起止时间早就造成某些延缓，是通风排水管已官方放入在使用和进行商家流之间的接下来步。除的项目外，认正时候收到瑞典制栽和匈牙利提倡，但是发动程序费时长，就没有办法够满足在宣布的2023年5月1日进行起止时间。从5月初通风排水管运营人员商向国外稽查培训机构递交报考进行，认正时候预期需求6-七个月方可做好。在此前研发中的如果是北溪三线于2023年几年度末进行已官方放入商用厨房。
• 同一个危险因素是，否则成本实用，北溪2号需要多长的时间的时间能力增多发货量。迄今直到直到，白芬兰还没有承若书利用新的预计在路线规划向欧式国家输送机高低本身水气。研究背景这款情况下，欧式国家国外进口白芬兰的管路本身水气量仍将遭遇受到限制。
答案
冬季一直会以这类或那种的方法解决危害销售的市场的不得预知的症状。 绿色生物质能变革哺乳期间要不间断增加和出售怯场将给这个北半球的收费带来了上行带宽阻力。 的使用本探讨下列做的销售的市场模似，行最快介绍不同潜在性的假定和情况回顾与展望，以确认一系例安全的毕竟，要怎样画出正确合理的管理决策，建立组织开展的梦想，包涵绿色生物质能作为衔接应要求的梦想。
RBAC子单位诞生于1982年，包括担负发展和维系是亚洲地区性和区域划分先天气和液化石油气石油气先天气的卖场阐述整体，其再生利用统计学学型号制作、统计学阐述、统计学学svm算法发展和数据报告库制作角度等非常专业学识向再生自然能源餐饮行业子单位及包涵再生自然能源、流量和的环境的政府中介机构中介机构作为强劲的阐述的工具。G2M2®亚洲地区性先天气阐述阐述整体™专为亚洲地区性先天气的卖场的容合发展计划方案而制作。它就是一套全部的型号整体，使用在阐述亚洲地区性先天气的卖场的先天气和液化石油气石油气先天气制作、运输管理、儲存和顾客。欲知道非常多产品信息，请访问就会：//rbac.com/
James Brooks, Ning Lin, Xin Tang
Background:
When caught in a heavy storm there is a natural reaction to go into a mode of coping to the situation. That coping may get you through the storm but could have long term unexpected ramifications. Since the release of last year’s Refinitiv-RBAC 2020/2021 Winter Outlook a lot has changed in energy economics, operations, trade and infrastructure.
We have seen extreme weather drive multiple compound failures in the North American gas and power markets (e.g. Texas), where supply, demand and price balances were shocked and a reduction in exports by pipeline and LNG created ripple effects across the globe. Along with weather events, a shift in global energy policy due to climate change concerns has contributed to the uncertainty swirling around gas and LNG markets around the world.
To deal with these changes, Refinitiv and RBAC have incorporated a whole new set of weather scenarios along with numerous changes in gas and LNG fundamentals, policies, costs and constraints into RBAC’s G2M2® Market Simulator for Global Gas and LNG™, in order to produce an updated outlook for the 2021/2022 winter season. This report gives a detailed look at the changing dynamics of the U.S., European and Asian markets and delivers real insights to help you prepare for and get through any tumultuous weather ahead.
Introduction:
In the Fall of 2020, analysts at RBAC and Refinitiv partnered to develop several scenarios around the upcoming 2020/2021 winter season’s weather and other gas market dynamics. Simulations using G2M2 yielded several impactful insights including:
· Winter demand would likely be one of the primary drivers for Henry Hub price for 2020 Q4 and 2021 Q1. Strong US winter demand would likely keep gas at home rather than being sent overseas as LNG.
· In a post-COVID world, producers would be forced to be more flexible in managing short-cycle production, rather than outspending cash to achieve more aggressive growth.
· Europe and Asia domestic demand would both rely on LNG imports but influence its regional price differently.
This initial joint gas outlook generated a great deal of attention from the industry. But the actual winter of 2020/2021 had a far greater impact. Arctic blasts were more severe and more damaging than the results of all scenarios the team simulated. Gas storage was drawn down to dangerously low levels. As a result global gas markets have heated up to prepare for this coming winter. With the 2021/2022 winter season approaching, the RBAC and Refinitiv team has rededicated its efforts to producing a winter gas outlook for the coming heating season in the northern hemisphere.
Like in the previous study, the Refinitiv-RBAC team developed a series of 36 month forecasts using G2M2, exploring the interconnection between regional markets using both fundamental drivers and weather sensitivities. The team made runs using 19 different weather scenarios to estimate their impact on the global gas balance as well as prices at hubs in North America, Europe, and Asia.
Impact of Henry Hub Price on LNG Exports
As we look back at the 2020/2021 Refinitiv-RBAC study, the 20 weather scenarios studied (based on the last 20 years of data) predicted a far less tumultuous and volatile winter season than nature delivered. Scenarios were not severe enough to push the simulation to generate spot price spikes, demand shocks and supply reductions approaching those that resulted from winter weather conditions that actually happened.
This was especially true for North America in February 2021 (see lower-left graph below but note the price scale is twice that of the upper left graph). The scenarios, data and simulation conditions could not have included the unknown factors around the unpreparedness of an insufficiently winterized power and gas pipeline network in the key producing region of North America and the resultant impact on LNG exports.
Chart 1 – 2020/2021 Henry Hub Price and US LNG Export Forecast
Chart 2 – 2021/2022 Henry Hub Price and US LNG Export Forecast
The study’s 2021/2022 outlook shows a significant increase in the average Henry Hub price to about $5.50/MmBtu in 2022 compared to $3.50MmBtu in last year’s study. In addition, in contradistinction to last year’s forecast, this year’s study projects LNG exports running close to 100% capacity throughout the forecast.
One might think with the increase in domestic prices for gas one would see a reduction in LNG exports as domestic markets would yield a greater potential for profit. However, that is not the case, as global gas and LNG prices have skyrocketed with supply shortages and lower than normal storage levels on the cusp of winter in Europe.
Global Gas and LNG Price
As global supply constraints continue to impact the gas and LNG markets, regardless of the varied weather scenarios studied using G2M2, the study projects price spreads for US LNG exports well above $5/MMBtu for the coming winter.
Chart 3 – 2021/2022 JKM and TTF Prices
European Gas Market – TTF Price Drivers
European Storage:
Gas storage has always been the market stabilizing factor during the winter season or unusually hot summers. However, record low Northwest European underground storage inventories have put intense upward pressure on TTF prices. Over the last 5 years, the amount of gas withdrawn during winter from NWE storage has swung wildly from 210 TWh during a mild winter of 2018-19 to 400 TWh in a very cold winter of 2017-18. The 2020/2021 winter was near normal weather conditions, but storage levels were down by 380 TWh.
Chart 4 – European Storage Inventory Levels
Imports from Russia:
Although European nations are leading the way in the energy transition, European gas markets still rely heavily on gas and LNG imports to meet domestic demand. Gas imports into the EU are mainly delivered through pipelines from Russia, Norway, and North Africa as well as by LNG tankers from around the world.
In recent months, uncertainty around Russian gas supply to Europe have had a significant impact on TTF prices. The European market continues to be very reactive to any indication of changes to gas supply. For example, there was a very strong reaction to potential changes around Russian supply from the Nordstream 2 pipeline and capacity auction results as you can see in the chart below.
Chart 7 – Price Impact of Supply Events and Announcements
European Gas Production:
Further exacerbating the upward pressure on TTF prices, European gas production has continued to decline. There has been a drop in production from approximately 280 to 160 MCM/D since January 2018. With the targets for the energy transition well established, there is no indication that the EU will bolster domestic production. In order to stabilize prices, it will need to find a way to secure more gas supply, which will prove to be quite difficult in these uncertain times.
Chart 8 – European Gas Production
Key Take-Aways
Running a variety of weather scenarios using RBAC’s G2M2 Market Simulator for Global Gas and LNG has yielded some very important take-aways that need to be evaluated when considering one’s market fundamentals analysis for the upcoming winter season.
· As always, the weather is one of the biggest unknowns and risks.
· Given the current tightness situation in the gas market globally, colder than normal winter in any of the big markets of the Northern hemisphere (US, Europe or Asia) would send major hub prices even higher and leave markets with the risk of a physical gas shortage over the winter months.
· Some blackouts or demand disruptions may be inevitable if demand is unusually high this winter.
· In addition, this also means that the tightness in global gas market will remain for longer as it will take more time for countries to replenish their underground storage stocks.
· Demand growth in other regions (i.e., China, South America) could exacerbate the current tightness in the market forcing Asian and European customers to compete for the same LNG cargoes.
· Europe could expect continuing limited Russia gas supply. When it will begin flowing and how much gas to be expected from Nord Stream 2 is still quite uncertain.
· Regarding the Nord Stream 2 pipeline, there has already been some delay in the expected start date due to its certification process, which is a mandatory final step before the pipeline can be commissioned and start commercial flows. Among other things, the certification process was hampered by American sanctions and opposition from Poland and did not start soon enough to meet the originally scheduled start date of October 1st, 2021. The certification process is expected to take up to 6-8 months to complete from early September when the pipeline operator submitted its application to the German regulator. For this study, the team has assumed it to start flowing by the end of Q1 2022.
· Another risk is how long it will take Nord Stream 2 to ramp up deliveries once it is commissioned. To date, Russia has not committed to any figure on how much gas will be send to Europe via the new projected route. There is a possibility that it may be at limited capacity.
Conclusion
Winter will always deal unpredictable conditions that impact the market one way or another. Continued growth in demand and tight supply during the energy transition will put upward pressure on prices throughout the Northern Hemisphere. Using market simulation such as has been done in this study allows one to quickly analyze a variety of potential assumptions and scenario outlooks to determine a credible range of results in order to make good decisions to achieve an organization’s goals including those demanded by the energy transition.
Team Leads:
RBAC
Dr. Ning Lin, Ph.D. – ning.lin@rbac.com
Dr. Robert Brooks, Ph.D. – robert.brooks@rbac.com
Refinitiv
Nantanaporn Udomchaiporn – nantanaporn.udomchaiporn@refinitiv.com
Xin Tang – xin.tang@refinitiv.com
RBAC Inc. is the market leading supplier of global and regional gas and LNG market simulation systems. These systems provide industry analysts powerful tools for supporting corporate investment and M&A strategy, improving free cash flow, achieving environmental and sustainability goals, including reduction of CO2 emissions, conducting credible and useful risk analysis and planning, and enhancing profitability in commodity trading. Organizations using RBAC’s products and services include energy industry firms and consultants, ISOs and RTOs, and government agencies involved with energy, transportation, and the environment. The G2M2® Market Simulator for Global Gas and LNG™ is designed for developing scenarios for the converging global gas market. It is a complete system of interrelated models for forecasting natural gas and LNG production, transportation, storage, and deliveries across the global gas markets.
Refinitiv, an LSEG business, is one of the world’s largest providers of financial markets data and infrastructure. Serving more than 40,000 institutions in over 190 countries, we provide information, insights, and technology that drive innovation and performance in global markets. Refinitiv Natural Gas and LNG Research teams provide the most comprehensive insights on market developments, price movements and supply/demand forecasts by leveraging sophisticated proprietary modelling and forecasting techniques. Our reports can help you understand the global gas market and empower you to make informed trading decisions. For more information, please visit: //www.refinitiv.com/en
