咱们发现恶劣的天汽从而从而导致美洲具有气和电业市厂的（诸如德克萨斯州）存在2次复合型常见故障，哪儿的生产、需求分析和的价格失衡接受影响，pvc管道和汽化具有气出口量的缩短在世界十大性从而导致了品牌连锁的反应。 随之的天汽案件，世界十大性新能源的政策因的气候都改变难题而发生提升，从而从而导致世界十大性具有气和汽化具有气市厂的保持不决定性分析。
是为了对付一些发展，路孚特和 RBAC 将套坐版的天氣情况各种本身气和汽化本身气工程项目假说、政策解读、资金和干涉领域的非常多的发展收录了 RBAC 的 G2M2 ®中国本身气分折简单介绍体统™，应对中国本身气股票的市场做出了局面和合理性的虚拟仿真简单介绍。 本汇报全面简单介绍了美利坚共和国、国外和中国股票的市场持续发展的静态，帮您为十年后的中国的随便乱局天氣最好提前准备并渡过艰险。
概况：
二零二一年时间内冬秋，RBAC和路孚特首次加盟项目设计规划了多种3d景象，围绕着 也将会随之出现的2020/二零二一年时间内寒冷的秋冬的时候和其余当然气领域情况。 纷纷表示加盟项目展现的当然气发展前景促使了行业内的极大值点赞，所以2020/二零二一年时间内的现实寒冷的秋冬的反应要比預測的3d景象太多了。 为南极寒流仿真的效果更频发，损毁力最大。 储气量被降低到安全的低平均水平，世界各国当然气领域在二零二一年时间内不断回温。伴随着2021/2023年寒冷的秋冬的赶上，RBAC和路孚特-RBAC正式发布二零二一年时间内世界各国长期当然气和液化石油气当然气领域构想，为北半球也将会随之出现的供暖时间段提拱有交换价值的分类。
RBAC 项目团队协作用 G2M2® 联合开发了总结36 六个月的分析预测，用市面 首要面重要因素和气候皮肤敏理智探讨区域中市面 范围内的互连。该项目团队协作用19种环境来风险评估气候对西方本身气动平衡机的的影响，甚至中美洲、西方和中美洲枢纽站的市场价。
拙作小编希望讲解近年回顾的极为重要方面，并将近年与2018年的預测实施合理性的十分和深入分析，借以提生让我们对市面虚拟的理解是什么。
亨利港（Henry Hub）单价对夜化具有气销往的会影响
当各位们回想2020-202在一年Refinitiv-RBAC中国中短期自然气和夜化自然气专业市场回顾（于202113月文章发表）时，在这其中关键性的个人观点有下几条几个方面：
• 夏季要求几率是亨利港 2020 年第 4 第一月度和 2021 年第 1 第一月度价的主要驱动安装环境因素其中之一。法国夏季要求强悍，几率会使纯管道煤气落到我们国家，而不会是成为液化石油气纯管道煤气运到国外市场。
• 后面 COVID 生活中，制作商将被强迫在管理系统短的周期制作因素愈加具备灵活性高，而没有从而满足更主动的增速而花大多外币。
• 美国和亞洲的我国使用需求都依赖性于汽化本身气美国进口，但对位置价的干扰各个。
然而与实计问题差距其探讨的20个季节状况前景（依据往日20年的数据统计）紧缺同比震荡的问题。仍然实体模型的统计假设不倾向，不可能持续推进制造G2M2®全球性天然植物气讲解讲解的外盘价飙涨、各种需求冲击性和供应商避免，以靠近实计造成的春秋季季节状况条件。
2021 年 2 月，美国地区的情形需要一样（请参阅如图，请还要注意右上图的纵地图坐标轴的价额是左上图的两倍）。今年评估报告中用到的情况、数据报告和模拟仿真前提不能充分的决定美国地区其主要主产区电力公司和非人工水气管道的过夏准备工作不充分或是从而对煤气非人工水气出口处发生影向的还不确定各种因素。
条形图1 - 2020/2021亨利港（Henry Hub）单价和加拿大液化石油气当然气出口处予测
统计图表 2 - 2021/2022 （Henry Hub）亨利联络线产品报价和瑞典汽化自然气出口商預測
该科研的2021-22年回顾显示信息，22年亨利港的年平均的价钱持续增长至5.50美金/MmBtu作用，而往年年底的汇报为3.50美金/MmBtu。 还有，与往年年底的予测反过来，去年新加坡煤气天然冰气出口型预计在运转比较接近于100%的产能。
般我认为，跟着（新加坡）国外纯非人工冰气收费的涨价，夜化纯非人工冰气进口将增多，所以国外市厂上将引起更强的店铺生意毛利润有潜力。 但是，具体情况也是这样一来，所以世界十大纯非人工冰气和夜化纯非人工冰气收费高涨，供货紧缺，与此同时拉丁美洲东季袭来伊始，永久保存标准不超普通标准，从而拉丁美洲市厂上的店铺生意毛利润房间已经会更强。
世界当然水气和夜化当然水气价格多少
通过世界上生产被限坚持危害绿色水气和煤气绿色水气领域，通过选用G2M2®的繁多气候过程，该通知单分折出国外煤气绿色水气出来的价格多少差超出5外币/MMBtu。
数据表格3 - 2021/2022 JKM 和TTF的价格多少
南美洲非人工气市場 - TTF 费用安装驱动影响因素
欧洲国家存放：
不知是在冬天或异常情况酷暑的秋秋冬，西方的储气库货存持续相对的讲较可靠。不过，创记录查询低值的西方大西北边楼顶储存方式货存给TTF报价受到了强大的上涨压强。 在在以往 5 上半年，从 NWE 储存方式的冬天拆分的非人工气量从 2018-19 年温顺冬天的 210 TWh 有很大程度的跳转 2017-18 年尤其严寒的冬天的 400 TWh。2020/2022年冬天临近正常的天气查询因素，但储存方式平行减退了380 TWh。
图形 4 - 澳大利亚储存方式仓库品质
2020/2021年季节，因为中美洲的需求在异样炎热的季节增多，煤气石油气纯当然气管道国外制造变少，影响煤气石油气纯当然气管道国外量要高于一切正常技术水平。煤气石油气纯当然气管道的群发量为20Bcm（220 TWh），底于前1年的33Bcm（360 TWh）。
2021 年 6 月末，德国内存库存管理为 160 TWh 或存储容量的 30%，为上去 5 年（2016-2020 年）的低些技术，突出如果低于 64% 的四年平衡技术。一同2019注气超时了事隔一款月。也许有一天的五四月才现在刚刚开始注气，而从经验上看，注气是在4四月现在刚刚开始的。
图形 5 – 荷兰东中南部地窖储气库事情
探究团队合作选用的 G2M2 模式化体系结构 19 种天气怎么样情景模拟，收录三种有差异的使用需求预估。这么多实施方案的没想到发现，预估在今年的春秋季（4月-三月份）海外大西西南部大致需要230 TWh的大自然气将被拿出。
在22年-22年的冬日，该型号预期贮存层次约为 135 TWh 或贮存发热量的 25%。不同之处之后，5年的差不多参考值35%。预期2019年澳大利亚东南区域贮存销量层次将持续降到5年差不多层次，有一天202五年底才行赶到5年差不多层次。
图形 6 - G2M2 欧洲国家存储空间存量情况
从芬兰国外：
虽说欧式大一部分国都乐观地对其进行自然能源转型期，但其先天气的市场仍特别严重依赖于先天气和煤气先天气的进口的，已拥有中国大陆供给。进到欧洲经济共同体国的先天气核心用乌克兰、奥地利和北非的排水管道和位于生活各区的煤气先天气托车气力输送机。
近几个月大来，土耳其对西方自然气供给的不确认性对TTF房价生成了重大的影晌。西方市场上对自然气供给转变 的丝毫预兆的反應已经如此极强。在下该图，当会出现新的业内北溪一号的事件真相和公告模板，诸如制度转变 和存储量拍品没想到等，房价会有所不为震荡。
统计图 7 – 北溪一号涉及到活动和公司公告对多少钱的损害
欧洲各国具有气生产方式：
澳洲本身气产油量坚持减退，进一部激化了TTF单价的上行速率各种压力。自 2018 年 1 月十一届三中，澳洲日常本身气产油量从最少 2.8亿高于1.15亿m³米。犹豫清洁能源经济转型的的目标开始判别，不会有情况表达欧洲地区联盟中国大陆将十分开发建设中国大陆的五天。只为稳固单价，澳洲需求找自己其中一种手段已保证质量更好的本身气的稳固供应商，而在整个不判别的年代，前景依然算是静美。
数据表格 8 - 国外纯液化气的生产
一般分析方法
食用 RBAC的G2M2®全.球纯液化石油气预计定量分析平台来源于不一样的的空气指数的情况下仿真不一样的场景中，自己得知没事些非常重要报告的格式，在充分考虑末来夏秋季销售市场的关键时，必须要充分评估方法。
• 与日常相同，气候是最高的不明数和风险分析产品之一。
• 由于当下南美洲自然气领域的的密集现象，北半球任何的巨型领域的（英国、南美洲或亞洲）的季节都比健康阴冷，这将影响一般交通枢纽价格多少进一次暴涨，一般自然气领域的有可能会在季节要面临短时风险隐患。
• 假设几年冬天里问题寒潮，业务需要量将较大增多，区域划分内的跳电将是必不可防止的。
还有，基于美国各州所需更长的精力来获取其低下储气的存货，这象征着全球排名天然的气市场上的紧张怎么办壮态将持续不断更长的精力。
• 中国人、南中美洲等国家的的需要量的增长可以会加快近几年行业的快节奏，强迫北美洲和德国客人掠夺是一样的的汽化具有气氧气源。
• 英国进口量台湾的管材具有气数目将随时面临限止，引响基本要素仍就在北溪第二线了吗能已经动工。
• 相对于北溪2线，主要是因为其身份认可步奏等影响，再创新高开机年月日英文都会出现部分卡顿，这就是排水管劳动合同制进行的使用和始于行业流以往的最好那步。除的要点外，身份认可时候受到了美利坚共和国经济制裁和匈牙利发对，有时开机证件等待时间长，無法充分考虑在原本定的202一年1月1日始于年月日英文。从九月初排水管运营服务商向法国安全监管平台上交申批始于，身份认可时候再创新高所需6-3个月才可以提交。在首次深入分析中的假定是北溪2线于22年第一点月度末始于劳动合同制进行商业应用。
• 另一个个分险是，万一开始利用，北溪2号须要许多時间才提升订货量。到现在说不定说不定，乌克兰还未诺言进行新的保守估计行车路线向西方传输许多天然植物植物气。研究背景此种情况报告，西方出口乌克兰的pvc管道天然植物植物气数量仍将会受到上限。
论证
寒冬一直会以这样的或这样的方式方法办理损害贸易领域的不得预知的情況。 燃料转型期一年后要保持延长和批发商心理紧张将给一部分北半球的的价格分享上行带宽压强。 使用的本设计中均做的贸易领域虚拟仿真，还可以高效浅析各方面隐藏假定和前景发展趋势，以断定一全系列靠普的结果显示，要怎样给出准确的科学决策，实行公司的要求值，以及燃料过渡期中要求的要求值。
RBAC子司创立者于1982年，注意责任研发和运营维护是世界和领域自然气和煤气石油气自然气市厂中估计体统的，其利于统计数据的信息学模式化场景、统计数据的信息研究、统计数据的信息学算法流程图研发和数据的信息库结构设汁因素等技术专业基础知识向生物质能领域子司已经有生物质能、流量和区域环境的当地政府设备出示強大的研究APP。G2M2®世界自然气估记研究体统的™专为世界自然气市厂中的融为一体研发方案怎么写而结构设汁。它一套全部的模式化体统的，应用于估计世界自然气市厂中的自然气和煤气石油气自然气生產、物流运输、存放和消耗。欲介绍更加多的信息，请考察：//rbac.com/
James Brooks, Ning Lin, Xin Tang
Background:
When caught in a heavy storm there is a natural reaction to go into a mode of coping to the situation. That coping may get you through the storm but could have long term unexpected ramifications. Since the release of last year’s Refinitiv-RBAC 2020/2021 Winter Outlook a lot has changed in energy economics, operations, trade and infrastructure.
We have seen extreme weather drive multiple compound failures in the North American gas and power markets (e.g. Texas), where supply, demand and price balances were shocked and a reduction in exports by pipeline and LNG created ripple effects across the globe. Along with weather events, a shift in global energy policy due to climate change concerns has contributed to the uncertainty swirling around gas and LNG markets around the world.
To deal with these changes, Refinitiv and RBAC have incorporated a whole new set of weather scenarios along with numerous changes in gas and LNG fundamentals, policies, costs and constraints into RBAC’s G2M2® Market Simulator for Global Gas and LNG™, in order to produce an updated outlook for the 2021/2022 winter season. This report gives a detailed look at the changing dynamics of the U.S., European and Asian markets and delivers real insights to help you prepare for and get through any tumultuous weather ahead.
Introduction:
In the Fall of 2020, analysts at RBAC and Refinitiv partnered to develop several scenarios around the upcoming 2020/2021 winter season’s weather and other gas market dynamics. Simulations using G2M2 yielded several impactful insights including:
· Winter demand would likely be one of the primary drivers for Henry Hub price for 2020 Q4 and 2021 Q1. Strong US winter demand would likely keep gas at home rather than being sent overseas as LNG.
· In a post-COVID world, producers would be forced to be more flexible in managing short-cycle production, rather than outspending cash to achieve more aggressive growth.
· Europe and Asia domestic demand would both rely on LNG imports but influence its regional price differently.
This initial joint gas outlook generated a great deal of attention from the industry. But the actual winter of 2020/2021 had a far greater impact. Arctic blasts were more severe and more damaging than the results of all scenarios the team simulated. Gas storage was drawn down to dangerously low levels. As a result global gas markets have heated up to prepare for this coming winter. With the 2021/2022 winter season approaching, the RBAC and Refinitiv team has rededicated its efforts to producing a winter gas outlook for the coming heating season in the northern hemisphere.
Like in the previous study, the Refinitiv-RBAC team developed a series of 36 month forecasts using G2M2, exploring the interconnection between regional markets using both fundamental drivers and weather sensitivities. The team made runs using 19 different weather scenarios to estimate their impact on the global gas balance as well as prices at hubs in North America, Europe, and Asia.
Impact of Henry Hub Price on LNG Exports
As we look back at the 2020/2021 Refinitiv-RBAC study, the 20 weather scenarios studied (based on the last 20 years of data) predicted a far less tumultuous and volatile winter season than nature delivered. Scenarios were not severe enough to push the simulation to generate spot price spikes, demand shocks and supply reductions approaching those that resulted from winter weather conditions that actually happened.
This was especially true for North America in February 2021 (see lower-left graph below but note the price scale is twice that of the upper left graph). The scenarios, data and simulation conditions could not have included the unknown factors around the unpreparedness of an insufficiently winterized power and gas pipeline network in the key producing region of North America and the resultant impact on LNG exports.
Chart 1 – 2020/2021 Henry Hub Price and US LNG Export Forecast
Chart 2 – 2021/2022 Henry Hub Price and US LNG Export Forecast
The study’s 2021/2022 outlook shows a significant increase in the average Henry Hub price to about $5.50/MmBtu in 2022 compared to $3.50MmBtu in last year’s study. In addition, in contradistinction to last year’s forecast, this year’s study projects LNG exports running close to 100% capacity throughout the forecast.
One might think with the increase in domestic prices for gas one would see a reduction in LNG exports as domestic markets would yield a greater potential for profit. However, that is not the case, as global gas and LNG prices have skyrocketed with supply shortages and lower than normal storage levels on the cusp of winter in Europe.
Global Gas and LNG Price
As global supply constraints continue to impact the gas and LNG markets, regardless of the varied weather scenarios studied using G2M2, the study projects price spreads for US LNG exports well above $5/MMBtu for the coming winter.
Chart 3 – 2021/2022 JKM and TTF Prices
European Gas Market – TTF Price Drivers
European Storage:
Gas storage has always been the market stabilizing factor during the winter season or unusually hot summers. However, record low Northwest European underground storage inventories have put intense upward pressure on TTF prices. Over the last 5 years, the amount of gas withdrawn during winter from NWE storage has swung wildly from 210 TWh during a mild winter of 2018-19 to 400 TWh in a very cold winter of 2017-18. The 2020/2021 winter was near normal weather conditions, but storage levels were down by 380 TWh.
Chart 4 – European Storage Inventory Levels
Imports from Russia:
Although European nations are leading the way in the energy transition, European gas markets still rely heavily on gas and LNG imports to meet domestic demand. Gas imports into the EU are mainly delivered through pipelines from Russia, Norway, and North Africa as well as by LNG tankers from around the world.
In recent months, uncertainty around Russian gas supply to Europe have had a significant impact on TTF prices. The European market continues to be very reactive to any indication of changes to gas supply. For example, there was a very strong reaction to potential changes around Russian supply from the Nordstream 2 pipeline and capacity auction results as you can see in the chart below.
Chart 7 – Price Impact of Supply Events and Announcements
European Gas Production:
Further exacerbating the upward pressure on TTF prices, European gas production has continued to decline. There has been a drop in production from approximately 280 to 160 MCM/D since January 2018. With the targets for the energy transition well established, there is no indication that the EU will bolster domestic production. In order to stabilize prices, it will need to find a way to secure more gas supply, which will prove to be quite difficult in these uncertain times.
Chart 8 – European Gas Production
Key Take-Aways
Running a variety of weather scenarios using RBAC’s G2M2 Market Simulator for Global Gas and LNG has yielded some very important take-aways that need to be evaluated when considering one’s market fundamentals analysis for the upcoming winter season.
· As always, the weather is one of the biggest unknowns and risks.
· Given the current tightness situation in the gas market globally, colder than normal winter in any of the big markets of the Northern hemisphere (US, Europe or Asia) would send major hub prices even higher and leave markets with the risk of a physical gas shortage over the winter months.
· Some blackouts or demand disruptions may be inevitable if demand is unusually high this winter.
· In addition, this also means that the tightness in global gas market will remain for longer as it will take more time for countries to replenish their underground storage stocks.
· Demand growth in other regions (i.e., China, South America) could exacerbate the current tightness in the market forcing Asian and European customers to compete for the same LNG cargoes.
· Europe could expect continuing limited Russia gas supply. When it will begin flowing and how much gas to be expected from Nord Stream 2 is still quite uncertain.
· Regarding the Nord Stream 2 pipeline, there has already been some delay in the expected start date due to its certification process, which is a mandatory final step before the pipeline can be commissioned and start commercial flows. Among other things, the certification process was hampered by American sanctions and opposition from Poland and did not start soon enough to meet the originally scheduled start date of October 1st, 2021. The certification process is expected to take up to 6-8 months to complete from early September when the pipeline operator submitted its application to the German regulator. For this study, the team has assumed it to start flowing by the end of Q1 2022.
· Another risk is how long it will take Nord Stream 2 to ramp up deliveries once it is commissioned. To date, Russia has not committed to any figure on how much gas will be send to Europe via the new projected route. There is a possibility that it may be at limited capacity.
Conclusion
Winter will always deal unpredictable conditions that impact the market one way or another. Continued growth in demand and tight supply during the energy transition will put upward pressure on prices throughout the Northern Hemisphere. Using market simulation such as has been done in this study allows one to quickly analyze a variety of potential assumptions and scenario outlooks to determine a credible range of results in order to make good decisions to achieve an organization’s goals including those demanded by the energy transition.
Team Leads:
RBAC
Dr. Ning Lin, Ph.D. – ning.lin@rbac.com
Dr. Robert Brooks, Ph.D. – ;robert.brooks@rbac.com
Refinitiv
Nantanaporn Udomchaiporn – nantanaporn.udomchaiporn@refinitiv.com
Xin Tang – xin.tang@refinitiv.com
RBAC Inc. is the market leading supplier of global and regional gas and LNG market simulation systems. These systems provide industry analysts powerful tools for supporting corporate investment and M&A strategy, improving free cash flow, achieving environmental and sustainability goals, including reduction of CO2 emissions, conducting credible and useful risk analysis and planning, and enhancing profitability in commodity trading. Organizations using RBAC’s products and services include energy industry firms and consultants, ISOs and RTOs, and government agencies involved with energy, transportation, and the environment. The G2M2® Market Simulator for Global Gas and LNG™ is designed for developing scenarios for the converging global gas market. It is a complete system of interrelated models for forecasting natural gas and LNG production, transportation, storage, and deliveries across the global gas markets.
Refinitiv, an LSEG business, is one of the world’s largest providers of financial markets data and infrastructure. Serving more than 40,000 institutions in over 190 countries, we provide information, insights, and technology that drive innovation and performance in global markets. Refinitiv Natural Gas and LNG Research teams provide the most comprehensive insights on market developments, price movements and supply/demand forecasts by leveraging sophisticated proprietary modelling and forecasting techniques. Our reports can help you understand the global gas market and empower you to make informed trading decisions. For more information, please visit: //www.refinitiv.com/en
